Is now a good time to run against the oil industry?
Welcome back to Bright Ideas, a weekly newsletter about the rise of clean energy. I’m Julian Spector, L.A.-based energy reporter for Greentech Media. I write this for fun in my spare time, when the Dodgers have a night off.
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I’m in the midst of a series of energy debates, and somehow energy debates keep popping up in the news that everyone else reads, too. Election Day drops next week, so I’m going to take a bite of this apple before it goes bad. Also, I’m taking next week off. We’ll all have enough to read on Tuesday.
The latest round of ~Energy In Politics~ erupted when Joe Biden used the final presidential debate to say he wants to “transition from the oil industry.” Usually, voicing the policies you published on your website months ago doesn’t kick up much of a ruckus. But Donald Trump and his surrogates quickly seized on this and tried to make it a thing:
Needless to say, “transition from” is not the same thing as immediately abolishing the entire industry. In fact, transitioning away from oil sounds a lot like what many major oil companies are doing right now—not the American ones, but Europeans like Shell, BP and Total, which are investing billions of dollars to grow clean energy businesses.
This reaction shows Trump thinks he benefits from calling out Biden’s interest in energy transition. Biden’s own walk-backs show he may agree. In light of that, this week’s Bright Ideas energy debate topic is:
Should Biden run against the oil industry?
Let the arguments and rebuttals begin.
Yes, Biden should run against the oil industry
It’s the job of great leaders to guide the public toward a future they need but might not feel ready for just yet. It’s hard to think of a more obvious future to lead toward than clean energy.
Biden doesn’t even need to get out in front of this. Renewables, though small as a share of our grid, already dominate new power plant construction nationwide. There are no red states and blue states, there are solar and wind producing states.
Electric cars, similar story: they’re a tiny sliver of cars on the road, but all the automakers who dragged their feet suddenly are jogging to catch up. Even Hummer’s touting a new electric tank, yet another item I neglected to include on my 2020 Bingo.
If you think markets are a good guide to what makes sense, we’re clearly heading toward a world where more vehicles drive on electricity, and more electricity is clean. That conversely means we don’t need to burn as much fossil fuel to do the things we want to do. That doesn’t need to imply disrespect for the Americans who work hard to bring us those fuels; they’ve played a valuable role in the national economy. But our needs are changing.
Clean energy and vehicles are just as American as Marcellus shale and pickup trucks. They happen to be growing, with ample room to create jobs and wealth, at a time when fracking giants are going bankrupt and Exxon Mobil’s value has plummeted. Biden should run on investing in American energy, and make the case for which kinds of energy make the most sense right now.
Who will they vote for? (Photo credit: Verifex/Flickr)
No, don’t run against the oil industry!
The economy’s in shambles, people are struggling to stay in their homes, and you want to target the oil and gas industry, a lynchpin of American prosperity?
Something can be right from a policy perspective but wrong for the moment. Trump won last time by eking out 80,000 votes in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Now is the time to fight for those votes, and to avoid picking unnecessary fights.
The clean energy fans know what’s up already. They actually heard about Biden’s promise to cut carbon from the electric grid by 2035. They maybe even read some newsletters about it. The task at hand is reaching the people who aren’t already on board, the ones for whom the existential threat of climate change isn’t as salient as how they feel about the economy or whatever.
These folks aren’t going to care if you clarify that you just want to eliminate oil subsidies. That’s getting into the weeds. They want to see more jobs and opportunities, not fewer.
Some of them work in the industry, and would rather keep the job they have than pay their kids’ tuition with promissory notes pegged to future green jobs.
Stimulus, public investment, industrial planning—that can all steer resources toward clean energy, while injecting life into the economy as a whole. Those actions can even set the stage for oil’s eventual demise. But there’s nothing to gain from kicking the sleeping giant now, even if it’s not as tall as it once was.
Let’s be honest
It doesn’t do the American people any good to hide the truth. Trump tried that with the coal industry. Four years later, coal workers are even worse off, and they still have no plan to get better.
Oil and gas have more runway than coal—even Biden’s plan keeps gas power for 15 years, and at least some cars will burn gasoline for decades. But anyone who’s followed the history of the oil industry has seen the jagged ups and downs. The highs never last. It’s time we stopped letting that comedown take us by surprise.
The point of an industrial transition, as opposed to a collapse, is you have time to plan and prepare while the changes unfold. Transitioning from oil means putting the immense engineering talent of those companies to work on more sustainable endeavors, rather than summarily firing them. If any oil companies make good on their magic biofuel quests or crack the carbon capture challenge, hey, keep chugging along!
The oil industry is pretty grown up. It doesn’t need coddling. A clear-headed vision for where the energy sector is headed can help them adapt and survive better than putting on blinders.
Don’t pick fights you don’t want
You said it yourself: we need oil and gas for the foreseeable future. It’s not a good look to knock a thing you depend on.
This election is about getting things back on track. Clean energy absolutely should guide whatever investments and infrastructure spending result from that. And the oil industry does get far more state handouts than a century-old, mature industry rightly deserves. But that’s wonky stuff. Leave that in the policy papers.
Clean energy is crushing it, even amidst the hellfire of 2020. Imagine how much more powerful it will be in four years. It’s too early to sharpen the knives.
That’s it for this week’s debate. Which side won? Reply to this email with your verdict, or find me on Twitter @JulianSpector.
This week in quarantine: Feeling chilly
I’ll hand it to you NorthEasterners: feeling chilly is nice.
After some late breaking October heat—in the 90s just a week or two ago, I recall the way the sun arced over the volleyball nets in Santa Monica—the icy fangs of Autumn dug into our sun kissed flesh. It dipped into the 60s. And I liked it.
Coolness makes you aware of your body in different ways. It reminds us that homeostasis doesn’t just happen, it takes energy. It sends you digging around in the garage for a box that you failed to label “sweaters.” The chilly sensation testifies that life isn’t always shorts and flip flops, but it does so without any real risk of pneumonia or frostbite.
Los Angeles doesn’t change much through the year. It doesn’t rain, until it does. I could use a getaway to see some leaves and recalibrate my internal East-Coaster clock, but that sort of travel is constrained right now. In place of a cruise down the Blue Ridge Parkway, I put on jeans and a button down shirt—and layered on a vest. Stepping out, I tasted the tangy bite of fall, and woodsmoke that someone meant to make, coming from a chimney, not the mountains.